Good players never get lucky
Friday, March 13th, 2009Are you one of those players that have a constant bad luck? Is your hand always the better when you go all in and does your opponent always aout draw you? There is a very simple explanation to this and it has nothing to do with luck.
We have all seen them throw a tantrum at the table, the players that actually are good but their temper makes them go on tilt every time they lose a hand on the river. We have them at the home games and we have them on tv when we watch the pros play. They complain that everyone else is lucky and they never get to win a hand on luck. Maybe you’re even one yourself and let me tell you, it can cripple your game.
If you on the other hand understand why it’s actually true, good players are lucky less than the beginners, maybe you can stay calm and prevent that raging tilt. It’s all about simple statistics, if you are the better player you will not get lucky, the worse player you are the more room there is for luck. This is quite the opposite of sports where good players can opt to have more luck (or more random events being in their favor) First of all we need to remember that poker is a game of odds. If you go all in when you have the better hand you might have 70% chance of winning or with an even better hand 80%.
If you have your opponent pinned with a flush draw after turn and you already hit the straight he has about 25% chance to hit that missing card. You have a massive advantage of 75% chance of winning. You did everything right, this was a good play from you, 75% is about as good as it gets but remember he still has 25% chance to win. He will win 1 out of 4 showdowns like this and he will be lucky every time he wins.
You on the other hand will win 3 out of 4 and none of your wins will be lucky because you had the best hand. If this is constant, you are the better player and you will never win a hand on luck. Your opponent will though, he will win 25% of all hands on pure luck and that is due to the very simple reason that statistics demand him to win some hands.
