Poker Probabilities and Hand Odds

Weighing up your next action is a tough job, especially when the stakes are high. Even when you’re holding pocket rockets, you’ve got to question yourself if you see three suited face cards on the board. Often, less experienced players will go with a gut feel. Pros do the same but combine it with intricate bluffing techniques, opponent reading skills and an in-depth knowledge of the probabilities of how each hand will pay off. In many cases this knowledge is built up through bitter experience but good players also do their homework. We’ve put together a rough guide to help you do the basic math at the table and add a little logic to your gut.

Probabilities on starting hands

The following groupings for Texas Hold ‘Em starting hands show the card combos that carry the greatest and smallest chances of being dealt. Knowing the likelihood of a starting hand can give you an inkling as to what your opponents might be toting as well as assessing the strength of your own hand. These percentages are grouped to give you an overall gauge of greater or lesser probabilities and do not break down actual percentage points in order to help you retain and recollect this information more easily.

Hands with up to a 0.5% chance of getting dealt:

A-A

A-K suited

K-Q suited

Hands with up to a 1% chance of getting dealt:

A-K unsuited

A-Q suited

A-J suited

K-Q unsuited

Hands with up to a 2% chance of getting dealt:

Royal pairs: K-K, Q-Q, J-J

Low pairs: 5-5, 4-4, 3-3, 2-2

A-Q to A-J unsuited

Hands with up to a 5% chance of getting dealt:

10s through 6s paired

A with lower than J suited

Any two consecutive cards suited to allow max chance for a Straight

Hands with up to a 10% chance of getting dealt:

A with lower than J unsuited

Any pair of any rank

Any two consecutive cards unsuited to allow max chance for a Straight

Hands with up to a 25% chance of getting dealt:

Any two suited cards

Any hand with a pair or A

Probability to make strong hands

Now let’s have a look at your chances to make some of the most common strong hands in Texas Hold ‘Em. These are shown from various starting positions and varied status at the flop.

Up to 55% chance:

If you have four parts of an open-end straight flush after the flop that you will make at least a straight.

Up to 35% chance:

If you have four parts of a flush after the flop that you will make it

If you have three-of-a-kind after the flop that you will make a full house

If you hold no pair that you will make a pair with one of your cards at the flop

Up to 20% chance:

If you have two-pair after the flop that you will make a full house

If you hold a pair that at least one more of a kind will turn up on the flop (12%)

If you hold two suited cards that two or more similarly suited cards will turn up on the flop (12%)

If you have starting pairs through to the river that at least one more of the same rank will turn up

Up to 10% chance

If you have four parts of an open-end straight flush after the flop that you will make it

If you have a pair post flop that at least one more of the same rank will be dealt

If your starting hand is suited that three more suited cards will turn up by the river (6%)

Where numbers do the talking

Sometimes you get lucky on a hand which is why you might be tempted to play a weak hand and hope that it’s your turn to come up trumps. Nines are a notoriously tricky card to play - just about high enough to pair up regularly with a low card in which no straight can be made, and just low enough to miss out on making a strong pair should they come up. However, if you team a nine with a five, six, seven or eight – suited or unsuited, it’s very hard not to stay in for the straight or the straight-flush. But, if you look at the statistics, nines still let you down. The chances of making a straight on the flop from 9-5 unsuited are over 300-1.

Knowing a little bit about probabilities and success percentages can at least inform your actions next time you’re at the table. As this knowledge combines with your experience it will bolster your game no end. Spend a bit of time checking your player stats online to identify patterns and increase your probability of improving your game.